I like to imagine that there is an email currently awaiting Kevin Stallings in his inbox that reads as follows:
Dear Vanderbilt,
Best of luck against Arkansas. Oh and beware the Ides of March. Seriously.
Sincerely,
Bruce Pearl
As we are approaching March Madness, a beloved time of year for sports fans, I would like to take the time to break down the potential teams representing the state of Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament. While some of this is a repeat of a former entry from facebook, I have updated it all and shifted more of my focus on what is to come instead of what has already happened because it hardly matters what happened in the first 30+ games of the season at this point.
The following 5 teams will be in the NCAA Tournament from the state of Tennessee:
1. Austin Peay
2. Belmont
3. Memphis
4. Tennessee
5. Vanderbilt
We’ll go in alphabetical order to ensure that the little guys get their due justice.
1. Austin Peay- Representing the Ohio Valley Conference in the NCAA Tournament, Austin Peay is hoping to be the little Cinderella that could. I hate to burst anyone’s bubble but I have no doubt that they will soon prove that, well they couldn’t. For those of you who don’t have the slightest clue where Austin Peay is located, it’s in Clarksville, Tennessee, (North/Central Tennessee) hometown of Lady Vols coach Pat Summit.
The Governors are in the tournament for just the second time in the past twenty one years, with the most notable appearance occurring back in 1987 when their victory over Illinois caused ESPN commentator Dick Vitale to stand on his head (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Zr0271a6U8).
The one and only positive thing I see about this Austin Peay team is that all five of their starting five average over ten points a game. There appears to be good balance there, however if you keep going down the roster you soon realize that as soon as a starter is subbed out the game, production drops off big time. They have one of the shallowest rosters I think I’ve ever seen.
They have only won on game against a top 100 RPI team this season was back on December 19th when they won at Belmont. Their only other noteworthy matchups were at Vanderbilt in the season opener where they lost by 14, and at Memphis where they lost by 22. So obviously the Governors aren’t a favorite to succeed in the Tournament at a projected 14 seed in the East Region of the bracket. Some optimists may say “you never know”, but that doesn’t really apply in this case, as I think we do all know they won’t have a chance in the world.
2. Belmont- The Bruins have made the field of 65 again for the third straight year after winning the Atlantic Sun title this past Saturday. They went 25-8 overall but their only somewhat noteworthy win was on the road against a mediocre at best Cincinnati team in their home opener. While Belmont may have a little bit more depth than Austin Peay, they absolutely don’t have the size or athleticism to compete with other teams that will be in the field of 65. Belmont has one “big guy” at 6’11” but he doesn’t even see significant minutes. Not to mention the fact that the majority of their team is white. Not to offend my fellow white folk, but come now…
At a probable 15 seed for the third consecutive year, Belmont will have to rely on the luck of the underdog to return this tournament after apparently seeing its shadow last season as there were a very very minimal number of upsets last year.
Maybe they should get this kid a jersey (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5J8brca4M8&feature=related). He obviously can hit the high pressure shots in front of HUGE crowds.
Sorry Belmont, I just can’t imagine you beating or even competing with any of the projected 2 seeds no matter how well you look in Cinderella’s shoes.
3. Memphis- Let me preface what I am going to say by saying this, I too grew up a big Memphis fan. Yet I have never disguised the fact that I am a Tennessee fan first; and Memphis fan second. The majority of Memphis fans that I have known through the years are unable to comprehend that concept. However I will try to be as rational as possible in discussing the Tigers.
First let’s now look at Memphis’ resume that their fans so avidly defend without knowing any of the facts… Memphis has played the following games on the road (literally meaning on the opposing teams home court) at: MTSU, Cincinnati, Marshall, Rice, Tulsa, Houston, UAB, and Tulane. Not once against a tournament team. I am however willing to consider the contest at UAB to be legitimate. But still, that’s one, with me being nice since UAB is after all ranked in the RPI top 50, at 48. You’re pushing it Memphis. And once again in the spirit of fair competition I will acknowledge that Memphis did win against Oklahoma, UConn, and USC on neutral courts.
Memphis does have a handful of impressive wins at home as well including: Georgetown, Arizona, Gonzaga and UAB. However I would really only consider two of those, Georgetown and Gonzaga, to be noteworthy. Arizona finished the regular season 17-13 going 8-10 in the Pac-10 and had multiple bad losses to Virginia at home and at Washington. And UAB once again is sort of a toss up but I do consider them a worthy opponent even though they are in the Conference USA.
All that being said, the vast majority of Memphis’ wins against Conference USA opponents mean little to nothing. That is a very much validated argument because of the fact that Memphis is likely to be the only team representing the conference. I know the argument that all teams at this level of competition today are athletic enough and somewhat talented enough to beat anyone on any given day, and I agree with it, but still…Memphis would have had zero excuses that I would have listened to for losing any one of their in conference games.
To their credit Memphis has also tried to join any bigger conference that will take them...but there have been no takers. Probably because of the whole Tiger High issue and the fact that the football team has both the success and popularity ratings of a Bush.
I admittedly have been very negative towards Memphis for the majority of the season but that is only because of the constant Red Herring using nature of their fans and my frustration in that regard. Honestly speaking though I think that the Tigers are in a good position having lost to Tennessee in the regular season because now all the focus has shifted from them, and their strive for perfection, to North Carolina and UCLA. That loss has nearly allowed Memphis to slip in under the radar. People have forgotten already just how much talent and depth the Tigers have and I think that they will continue to use that to their advantage come tournament time. As I have tried to say all along, I don’t necessarily think that Tennessee is a better or more talented team than Memphis, I just think that they are a more proven team. I also think that while Memphis may have a better five (starting five), Tennessee has a better overall ten.
And just for the heck of it continuing with the throw-back footage trend, here is a clip from the 1992 NCAA Tournament when Memphis had Anfernee Hardaway and David Vaughn (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FF52Rb36xns).
4. Tennessee- As coach Bruce Pearl said in his press conference Monday, “I don’t know if we’re one of the top four teams in the country. But I guarantee you that we deserve the ranking.” Tennessee currently has the RPI “triple crown” as ESPN’s Bracketologist Joe Lunardi points out; they are number one in RPI, SOS, and Non-Conference RPI.
The Vols have road wins at Xavier (#9 RPI), at Memphis (#3 RPI), and at Mississippi State (#40 RPI). They also won on neutral cites against West Virginia and Gonzaga, although the Gonzaga game was basically a home game for the Zags since it was played in Seattle.
On top of those wins the Vols also won five other home games against teams in the RPI top 50 including: Vanderbilt (by 20), Ole Miss (when undefeated), Ohio State, Arkansas (by 22), and Kentucky. They also beat Florida at home by 22 points.
On the other side of things Tennessee’s only losses on the season were against Texas (neutral site early in the season), at Kentucky (against a finally healthy Kentucky team in need of a signature win), and at Vanderbilt (who didn’t lose a home game all season). Those are justifications, just notes that I consider worthy of mentioning.
Also taking a closer look at the Vanderbilt loss and comparing the two teams, let us not forget that on January 17th when it was Vanderbilt’s turn to first come to Knoxville, Vanderbilt got rocked 80-60 after shooting 37% from the field. Shane Foster struggled going 6 for 17 from the field including 1 of 11 from behind the arc. Call it what you’d like, but I would consider that a train wreck of a game for Vanderbilt. It was written off as just Vanderbilt having an off night and I was willing to settle for that because it happens.
Looking at the matchup at Vanderbilt where the Vols lost however Tennessee lost by three to a Vanderbilt team with revenge on their mind and a lot to prove. What was Tennessee’s field goal percentage? 33%. The Vols shot worse at Vanderbilt than Vanderbilt did in Knoxville and managed to lose by 17 less points. Chris Lofton was the only player on the team that met or exceeded his average in points. He tried to carry the team but one player can only get you so far. Not to make excuses but the team was clearly exhausted still from the hard fought Memphis game where you can't argue that they didn't leave it all out on the court. They had two days off before having to face Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt on the other hand hosted Georgia over the weekend...you do the math...
Since youtube videos have apparently become a part of this post, here is my favorite Chris Lofton highlight video, if you can find me a better college highlight video of any player in the country I’ll stand on my head like Dick Vitale (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuPpsYfY6Kc&feature=related).
5. Vanderbilt- Well since the win at home against Tennessee, Vanderbilt has again showed their true colors in my opinion losing at Arkansas and at Alabama. The Commodores have proven that they simply cannot win on the road. They finished the regular season at 25-6 and yet all six of their losses came on the road this past season. Coincidentally most of the six were against the best teams on their schedule. In one sense that fact can be used to say that Vanderbilt lost very tough games on the road as most teams do. However it also means that they didn’t prove the ability to beat a good team away from home once.
Further, aside from both times Tennessee and Vanderbilt faced off, Vanderbilt has played only two other ranked teams, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Vanderbilt lost by 16 in the game against Ole Miss. And that is to an Ole Miss team that is 7-9 in the SEC, no longer ranked, and that has loses to Auburn twice, Alabama, and LSU. Vanderbilt caught every possible break at home to beat Mississippi State at home in over time by one point. In addition to those two, the only other better than average team Vanderbilt has played would be Florida and they lost on the road by 22 to them (Tennessee beat Florida by 22 already).
While all of that sounds very negative, I kind of like Vanderbilt’s team. I want to say that I expect them to surprise people and really step up and play well in the Tournament but they simply haven’t proven the ability to leave home and win.
The Commodores have a great and talented starting five led by senior Shan Foster and freshman A.J. Ogilvy. However they lack enough depth to really be able to keep up with the deeper teams they are sure to face in the Tournament. This could also explain why they have been so unsuccessful on the road where you won’t catch as many calls in your favor.
Here is a very impressive video of Shan Foster’s 42 point game against Mississippi State near the end of the Commodores season (http://youtube.com/watch?v=qUQyS6M2DAA).
Also, provided that Vanderbilt can win it’s first two games in the tournament, and Tennessee can beat either South Carolina or LSU, there would be a third and final match up between the two teams on a neutral court that could once and for all settle things. As I first noted in my letter to Kevin Stallings from Bruce Pearl in the opening, I feel like the Vols are chomping at the bit for another shot at the Commodores.
That’s all for now, I just wanted to share my thoughts on each of the teams representing Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament. I think that overall Memphis and Tennessee are equally most likely to succeed, followed by Vanderbilt, Belmont, and then Austin Peay.
I’ll do another entry soon either commenting on the SEC Tournament or just breaking down the brackets with predictions after selection Sunday.
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